What to Watch
Credible evidence of timely and sufficiently aggressive policy easing – enough to prevent a hard landing in the short term – would include a basket of policy actions implemented before the end of January, roughly as follows: stimulating higher loan growth in the range of 1 trillion-plus yuan in December and January 2012 – more or less double what the September-November 2011 period); further reserve requirement cuts of 200 to 300bps; a fiscal stimulus plan in the range of 1 to 2 trillion yuan; and, last but not least, a reversal of key real estate restrictions.
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